We’re heading into the final quarter of 2026, and there is no shortage of uncertainty in the headlines.
Political discussions, tariffs, inflation, energy prices and the possibility of higher interest rates are giving some Calgary-area buyers a reason to sit on the sidelines.
But when you look beyond the headlines and study what is actually happening in the market, the picture becomes much more interesting.
My view remains the same: I am very bullish on Alberta over the long term.
Nobody has a crystal ball, and no one can predict the real estate market with 100% certainty. But I have seen many different market cycles over the years, and there are several important trends developing right now that buyers, sellers and homeowners should understand.
Calgary Sales Are Down, But Prices Have Been Surprisingly Resilient
In September 2026, there were approximately 1,650 MLS sales, compared with 1,716 during September 2025.
Year-to-date sales reached approximately 16,291 transactions, putting total sales volume roughly 10% below last year.
At first glance, that sounds significant.
But here is the part that deserves more attention:
The overall benchmark price was approximately $566,000, down only about 0.82%.
That is a very different story than the sales-volume numbers alone might suggest.
Normally, when sales activity falls substantially, you might expect motivated sellers to begin aggressively reducing their prices.
That is not happening across the board.
Instead, many homeowners appear to be saying:
“If I can’t get the price I want today, I’ll wait.”
That matters.
It suggests many Calgary homeowners remain confident enough in the long-term prospects of the market that they are not being forced to sell.
That willingness to hold onto property is helping support prices even while transaction volume remains lower.
Calgary Is Moving Toward a More Balanced Market
Inventory has risen, giving buyers more selection than they had during the extremely competitive markets of the past few years.
For detached homes, Calgary is now hovering around the line between a balanced market and conditions that are becoming increasingly favourable for buyers.
Approximately 30% of detached homes listed during September sold.
That may sound low compared with the extraordinary absorption rates we saw a few years ago, but historically, a 30% range is not unusual.
It also means pricing strategy matters again.
During a very hot market, sellers can sometimes get away with optimistic pricing.
Today, buyers have choices.
If your home would realistically sell for $775,000 to $785,000 in the current market, listing it at $850,000 simply because that may have been achievable during a previous market peak is unlikely to produce the result you want.
The market ultimately decides the price.
Detached Homes Remain Calgary's Strongest Segment
The benchmark price for a detached Calgary home in September was approximately $739,400.
There were roughly 896 sales out of 2,968 listings, with homes spending approximately 38 days on the market on average.
From what I am seeing firsthand, a properly positioned home in today's market should often be expected to sell within roughly 40 to 60 days, depending on its location, price, condition and competition.
The strongest detached-home price range continues to be approximately $600,000 to $700,000, with the $700,000 to $800,000 category close behind.
And I believe that second category is important.
As Calgary continues to grow, I would not be surprised if the $700,000 to $800,000 range becomes our largest detached-home segment within the next year or two.
One of the Most Interesting Trends: Luxury Buyers Are Still Buying
One of the signals I find most interesting in the current market is the continued strength of higher-priced properties.
Calgary homes above $1 million continue to sell.
The market above $1.5 million has also remained relatively strong.
And that trend isn't limited to Calgary.
Higher-end activity remains visible in surrounding communities including Airdrie, Cochrane, Chestermere, Okotoks, High River, Strathmore and Canmore.
Why does that matter?
Because buyers purchasing million-dollar-plus properties often have more financial flexibility.
They have the ability to wait.
Yet many are choosing to buy.
That tells me something about long-term confidence.
These buyers appear to be looking past the next few months and asking a different question:
Where do I want my money invested five years from now?
Many of them are choosing Alberta real estate.
Follow the Long-Term Fundamentals, Not Just the Headlines
There are legitimate issues affecting consumer confidence.
Tariff uncertainty has been ongoing.
Higher transportation and diesel costs can contribute to inflation because virtually everything we consume has to be transported.
Bond yields have also been moving, which affects longer-term mortgage rates.
Five-year fixed mortgage rates do not simply follow the Bank of Canada overnight rate. They are heavily influenced by the bond market.
If inflationary pressure continues, borrowers could potentially be looking at higher fixed rates next year.
That is worth paying attention to.
But it is also worth asking:
If borrowing becomes more expensive later, could today's softer market actually offer buyers more negotiating power than they may have once confidence returns?
That is the opportunity I believe some buyers may be overlooking.
What Is Happening in Calgary's Surrounding Communities?
The surrounding communities are not all behaving the same way.
Compared with the previous year, the transcript's September figures showed approximately:
Airdrie: down 4.7%
Chestermere: down roughly 2%
Cochrane: down roughly 2%
Strathmore: up approximately 4.5%
Canmore: up approximately 0.9%
Okotoks: down approximately 4%
Calgary: down approximately 1%
High River: down approximately 1.8%
Airdrie has experienced one of the larger year-over-year declines, while Strathmore continues to show strength.
Affordability may be one of the reasons.
Strathmore still offers buyers access to many homes in the $500,000 to $600,000 range, which remains attractive for buyers looking for more home for their money.
Townhouses: More Inventory Means Buyers Have Choices
Calgary's townhouse market currently has considerably more supply.
September's absorption rate was approximately 22.49%, meaning fewer than one-quarter of listed townhouses sold during the month.
The benchmark price was approximately $412,400.
More supply has created price pressure, but we are still seeing many owners choose to hold rather than accept a price they are unhappy with.
And for move-up homeowners, that creates an important strategic question.
Imagine you purchased your townhouse for $500,000 and today's market suggests you may only receive $460,000.
At first glance, selling may feel like taking a loss.
But what if the detached house you want to purchase was previously $700,000 and can now be bought for $625,000?
You may be giving something up on the sale while gaining considerably more on the purchase.
That is why move-up decisions should never be evaluated by looking at the sale price of your existing home in isolation.
You need to examine both sides of the transaction.
Condo Owners Need a Clear Strategy
Apartment condos are currently one of the most challenging parts of the Calgary market.
The September absorption rate was approximately 18.89%.
The benchmark price was around $291,000, compared with approximately $317,000 a year earlier.
There is simply a lot of condo inventory available.
But averages do not tell the whole story.
We recently listed a condo that sold in one day with competing offers because it had the combination buyers were looking for: strong features, an excellent location and proper positioning.
That is why condo sellers need to be especially strategic.
If you own a condo and are considering selling, you may want to evaluate several options:
Could you sell and move your equity into a property type with stronger long-term demand?
Could you keep the condo and rent it?
Could the opportunity on your next purchase outweigh the discount required to sell your current property?
Too many homeowners focus entirely on what they might be “losing” on the property they own.
The better question is:
What could I gain by making the right move today?
The Move-Up Buyer Opportunity
This may be one of the most interesting markets we have seen in years for certain move-up buyers.
Why?
Because there is more inventory.
Buyers have negotiating power.
Some higher-priced properties have adjusted.
And homeowners with equity may be able to use that equity strategically to move into a better home without paying the premiums buyers faced during the hottest parts of the market.
The key is to model the complete move.
You need to understand:
What your current home would realistically sell for today
How much equity you have available
What your next home could potentially be purchased for
How your new payment would compare
Whether buying first or selling first makes more sense
How to reduce the risk of carrying two properties
That is where having a strategy becomes more important than trying to perfectly “time” the market.
My Outlook for Calgary and Alberta
I remain very positive about Alberta's long-term prospects.
There will always be short-term uncertainty.
There will always be political headlines.
There will always be economic cycles.
There will always be reasons to wait.
But real estate is rarely about predicting exactly what happens over the next five months.
For most homeowners and investors, the more important question is:
Where is this market likely to be five years from now?
My belief is that people who purchase good properties in strong locations and take a long-term view of Calgary and Alberta will be well positioned.
The current market may not be perfect.
But imperfect markets often create opportunities that disappear once everyone feels confident again.
Thinking About Buying, Selling or Moving Up?
If you are considering buying an investment property, moving into a larger home, downsizing, selling a townhouse or condo, or simply trying to understand what your equity could allow you to do next, don't make the decision based on headlines alone.
We can look at your complete situation and build a strategy around:
Your Current Home Value
Understand what your property could realistically sell for in today's market.
Your Equity Position
Determine how your existing equity could help fund your next move.
Your Next-Home Options
Identify homes that fit your lifestyle, budget and long-term goals.
Your Monthly Payment
Compare the financial impact before you make a decision.
Your Timing Strategy
Determine whether buying first, selling first or using a more structured move-up strategy makes the most sense.
The goal isn't simply to complete another real estate transaction.
It's to make sure your next move puts you in a stronger position five years from now.
Want to Know What Your Current Home Could Sell For?
And more importantly, what could your equity buy in today's Calgary market?
Contact Rob Vanovermeire and the team for a personalized Move-Up Strategy & Equity Review.
We can help you understand the numbers, compare your options and build a strategy before you make your next move.
Rob Vanovermeire
📞 (587)-328-7524
📧 [email protected]
🌐 robvanoteam.ca
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