If you’ve been following the headlines lately, you’ve probably heard plenty of opinions about the Canadian real estate market.

Prices are falling. Buyers are waiting. Inventory is rising. Rates could change. Now is the time to buy. Now is the time to wait.

The problem with most of those statements is that real estate is local.

What is happening in Toronto or Vancouver doesn’t necessarily tell you what is happening in Calgary. And even within Calgary, the market can look very different depending on the community, property type, and price range.

That’s why I prefer to look at the actual numbers before making decisions.

As we move through the second half of 2026, the Calgary market has clearly changed, but there are also some very interesting opportunities developing for buyers, sellers, and particularly homeowners considering a move-up.

Here’s what I’m seeing.

Calgary Isn't One Real Estate Market

One of the biggest mistakes you can make right now is looking at a city-wide statistic and assuming it applies equally to every property.

It doesn't.

Condos and town homes have experienced more price pressure, while demand for detached and semi-detached homes has remained relatively stronger.

Location matters too.

In the numbers I reviewed in the video, benchmark prices showed different results across Calgary:

• North: down approximately 4.7%
• Northwest: down approximately 3.1%
• City Centre: down approximately 0.7%
• West: down approximately 0.9%
• Southeast: down approximately 3.3%
• East: down approximately 4.4%
  
  

The Northeast has experienced some of the most noticeable correction, with a significant amount of townhome supply contributing to the situation.

Meanwhile, the City Centre and West have been much more resilient.

The lesson?

Don't ask, "What's the Calgary market doing?"

Instead, ask:

"What's happening with homes like mine, in my community, at my price point, and what's happening with the type of home I want to buy?"

That is a much more useful question.

July Sales Slowed, But There's More to the Story

Calgary recorded approximately 1,900 transactions in July 2026, representing roughly a 9% decline from July 2025.

At first glance, that might sound concerning.

But there's another number worth paying attention to: new listings were down approximately 15%.

That's important.

When fewer properties enter the market, existing inventory has a better opportunity to be absorbed. And declining inventory can help bring greater stability to prices.

Inventory was sitting at approximately 6,626 properties, while the sales-to-new-listings ratio was around 57%.

So yes, we're in a softer market.

But softer does not automatically mean collapsing.

It means buyers and sellers need to be much more strategic.

Sellers: Your Pricing and Negotiation Strategy Matters

The average sale-to-list-price ratio discussed in the video was approximately 97.69%.

But there's something important to understand about that number.

A statistic doesn't negotiate your offer.

If your home is listed at $700,000 and someone offers $680,000, where that transaction ultimately lands can depend heavily on the strategy and negotiating ability behind the sale.

Could the final number be $685,000? $690,000? $695,000?

Potentially.

There's no magical formula that automatically determines the outcome.

This is why I’ve always believed that selling a home successfully involves much more than putting it on the MLS and waiting for an offer. Pricing, positioning, presentation, marketing, and negotiation all affect the final result.

As I discuss in my home-selling book, market value, assessed value, appraisal value, and the price a buyer ultimately agrees to pay are not necessarily the same thing. Understanding those differences, and properly positioning the unique features that make your property stand out, becomes especially important in a changing market.

One of the Most Interesting Signals Is at the Top of the Market

Here's one of the statistics I find particularly interesting.

Sales of properties above $1.5 million have remained remarkably strong. In fact, the data reviewed in the video showed more sales in this category in 2026 than during the comparable periods in 2025, 2024, and 2023.

The $1 million to $1.5 million category has also remained relatively consistent over the past few years.

At the same time, several lower price brackets have experienced declining sales volume.

Why does that matter?

Higher-end buyers appear to remain confident enough to put significant capital into Calgary-area real estate.

That doesn't guarantee where prices go next. Nobody can promise that.

But it is an interesting indicator to watch.

Why a Softer Market Can Create an Opportunity for Move-Up Buyers

This may be the most important part of the entire market update if you already own a home.

Homeowners often become fixated on one number:

"What can I sell my house for?"

That's understandable, but if you're moving from one property to another, it's only half of the equation.

What matters is the gap between what you're selling and what you're buying.

Imagine your current property would have sold for $700,000 in a stronger market but is now worth $660,000.

You've "lost" $40,000 on paper.

That doesn't sound appealing.

But what if the home you want to buy has moved from $1,000,000 to $925,000?

Now you're buying it for $75,000 less.

You sold for $40,000 less, but potentially bought for $75,000 less.

Your move-up gap improved by $35,000.

This is why I find it interesting that people are often perfectly comfortable selling high and buying even higher during a hot seller's market, but become nervous about selling somewhat lower and buying lower during a softer market.

For the right homeowner, the second scenario can actually create the better move-up opportunity.

The Opportunity Isn't Equal Everywhere

There is an important exception.

If you're selling a home in an area or property category that has softened and moving into a segment that remains strong, the numbers can work differently.

Acreages are a good example.

The rural and acreage market around Calgary has remained relatively strong since COVID, including areas such as Rocky View County.

If you're selling a property in the city and moving to an acreage, you may find that your current property has corrected while the acreage you want hasn't moved nearly as much.

That's why every move needs its own strategy.

You can't make a good decision from a national headline, or even a Calgary-wide average.

You need to compare your current property against your intended next property.

What Happens Next?

Nobody knows with certainty.

And I become skeptical whenever someone tells me they know exactly where real estate prices will be six or twelve months from now.

What we can do is watch the indicators.

Inventory is one of them.

If inventory begins being absorbed more quickly and additional buyers return to the market, we could see prices begin to stabilize. If demand remains soft and inventory builds, some segments could experience further pressure.

The important thing is not trying to perfectly predict the bottom.

It's understanding whether today's numbers create an opportunity for your specific situation.

Should You Buy, Sell or Wait?

There isn't one answer that applies to everyone.

If you're a first-time buyer, today's increased selection and softer pricing in certain categories may give you negotiating opportunities that were extremely difficult to find during the frenzy of previous years.

If you're selling, accurate pricing and strong negotiation are increasingly important.

And if you're a move-up homeowner, I would pay particularly close attention to the difference between your current home's value and the price of the home you want next.

Don't automatically assume that selling for less means you're worse off.

Sometimes a softer market can actually make the upgrade more achievable.

Before You Make Your Next Move, Run the Numbers

A real estate decision shouldn't begin with fear about headlines.

It should begin with information.

What is your home realistically worth today?

How much equity do you have available?

What would the home you actually want cost?

Has that segment risen, fallen, or stayed relatively stable?

What would your monthly payment look like?

And most importantly:

What is the true financial gap between staying where you are and making the move?

Those are the numbers I would want before making a decision.

Get a Clear Picture Before You Make a Move

If you're curious about the value of your home, I'm happy to provide a complimentary home evaluation.

And if you're thinking about moving later this year, or even sometime in 2027, we can look at your situation now and build a strategy around your timeline.

There is no obligation and no pressure to move before you're ready.

The goal is simply to give you enough information to make a confident decision when the time is right.

Thinking About Selling or Moving Up?

Reach out to the Rob Vanovermeire Real Estate Team for a home value and move-up strategy consultation.

We'll help you understand:

• What your current home could realistically sell for
• How much equity you may have available
• What that equity could make possible in your next home
• How the market differs between the property you're selling and the one you're buying
• Whether today's Calgary market creates an opportunity for your next move
  
  

Before you make a decision, let's run the numbers.