What Rising Oil Prices Could Mean for Our Housing Market

Every month I like to take some time to break down what’s happening in the Calgary real estate market. The numbers are always important, but sometimes the bigger story comes from the economic factors surrounding the market.

Right now, one of the biggest factors to watch is oil prices.

Over the past couple of weeks we have seen tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher. Historically, whenever there is disruption involving major oil-producing regions, energy prices tend to spike.

For most parts of the world, rising oil prices are often viewed primarily as inflationary pressure. In Alberta, however, the impact can be very different.

Even though our province has diversified its economy significantly over the years, energy is still a major driver of economic activity. When oil prices rise, the province typically sees increased revenue, more investment, and often more jobs.

When people feel confident about their employment and financial future, they tend to make larger financial decisions. Buying real estate is often one of them.

Looking at the February 2026 Calgary Market Numbers

Let’s look at what the numbers are telling us right now.

In February 2026, Calgary recorded 1,526 MLS sales, compared to 1,718 sales in February 2025. That represents a decrease of about 11 percent year over year.

Year-to-date sales are also slightly down compared to last year.

Inventory levels currently sit at roughly 3.34 months of supply, which places the market closer to what we would consider a balanced market that is leaning slightly toward buyers.

Benchmark pricing came in around $557,450, compared to approximately $584,050 a year ago.

When people see numbers like that, the first reaction is often to wonder whether prices are dropping significantly.

That is not necessarily the case.

A large part of what affects benchmark and average prices is the type of homes that are selling, not just the value of individual properties. When fewer high-end homes sell during a given period, it can pull the benchmark price down even if the underlying values of properties remain relatively stable.

Where the Opportunities Are Right Now

One of the things we are seeing in today’s market is higher levels of inventory compared to the last couple of years.

When inventory increases, buyers naturally have more choice. When buyers have more choice, sellers sometimes need to be more flexible on price or terms.

For buyers, that can create real opportunities.

What often happens when markets soften slightly is that people become hesitant. When uncertainty increases, many buyers decide to wait.

Interestingly, those moments of hesitation often create some of the best opportunities.

Condo Market Conditions

The condo market is currently showing some of the clearest signs of softness.

The absorption rate for apartment-style condos is currently sitting at around 22 percent, which means there is more inventory available than there are buyers at the moment.

Benchmark pricing for condos is currently around $298,000, which is down about 9 percent year over year.

For sellers, this means strategy is extremely important. Pricing, marketing, and positioning your property correctly in the market all matter.

For buyers, it means there may be excellent opportunities to purchase properties that were more competitive a year or two ago.

A Word About Timing the Market

One thing I always remind people is that trying to perfectly time the real estate market is almost impossible.

You usually do not know whether you made the perfect decision until six months or even a year later.

The most successful buyers and sellers I have worked with over the years do not make decisions based purely on market timing.

Instead, they make decisions based on their own situation. This includes their finances, job stability, family needs, and long-term plans.

The market should absolutely be considered as part of the decision-making process.

It simply should not be the only factor.

New Construction Is Becoming More Competitive

Another interesting trend we are seeing right now is that builders are becoming more aggressive.

Some new developments are offering very competitive pricing and incentives. This is taking some market share away from resale homes.

However, building a new home is a process and it is not always as simple as it may appear.

There are many steps involved, and builders can make mistakes like anyone else. That is why it is important to have an experienced real estate professional guiding you through the process and helping keep everything on track.

What Should Buyers and Sellers Do Right Now?

The truth is that there is no single answer that fits everyone.

Some people should absolutely be buying right now.

Others should be selling.

Many people may need to buy and sell at the same time, especially if they are upgrading or downsizing.

The best approach is always to look carefully at:

• Your financial situation

• Your job stability

• Your long-term plans

• Your family needs

• Your equity position

When you understand those factors clearly, the right decision usually becomes much easier.

Final Thoughts

Real estate markets are always influenced by a combination of local conditions and global events.

Right now we are seeing higher inventory levels and a softer market in certain segments. That can create opportunity.

At the same time, rising oil prices could bring increased economic activity into Alberta if those trends continue.

No one can predict the future with certainty.

But by understanding the trends and focusing on your personal situation, you can make decisions with far more confidence.

If You Have Questions

If you have questions about the Calgary market, or if you are thinking about buying or selling, feel free to reach out.

I am always happy to share my experience and help you understand your options.

Rob Vanovermeire
📞 587-328-7524